BJP, the largest party in India is seen exchanging the verbal duels with Mamata’s TMC in West Bengal. West Bengal is going for state elections in early 2021 and BJP is expecting to win the state of Bengal and defeat the incumbent TMC. Mamata’s TMC has been ruling the state for the last 10 years winning two consecutive terms. Both the times TMC gained vote share and won seats too. It was in 2011 elections, Mamata led TMC won Bengal with 184 seats in the 294 seat assembly. Come 2016, TMC improved their tally by winning 211 seats in 294 seats with a vote share of 44.91%.
Looking at the above statistics things look well in control of TMC, but everything changed in 2019. The incumbent TMC which won 34 seats in 40 seat Lok Sabha in 2014, won just 22 seats in 2019. It is ‘just’ because of the margin of vote share that TMC enjoyed. TMC sat with mammoth 39.05% vote share and BJP had only 17% with 2 seats in 2014. Come 2019, things almost turned upside down. BJP saw unprecedented growth with 40.64% vote share and winning 18 seats.
Going by the statistics in the 2ndparagraph, the psephologist in you must be awakened. Also, the point must be clear on why BJP is keen & desperately awaiting the 2021 elections.
There are multiple reasons why BJP wants to win Bengal. Let’s look at a few…
Ø Increase their footprint in Bengal, especially because all other eastern states are captured by BJP except Odisha. Both Bengal and Odisha are in the radar of BJP which will take them closer to their goal of BJP Akhand Bharat.
Ø Also, BJP is making inroads in the state of Kerala by fighting in Civic polls and winning few seats. Not to forget BJP is doing all it can to join the fight for power in Tamil Nadu. Rumours are plenty on BJP wanting to merge with Rajinikanth for upcoming elections.
Ø We have all seen the GHMC elections in Hyderabad which saw BJP winning 48 seats. This is truly unthinkable for opposition parties. In a way, this victory has brought BJP to the forefront in Telangana and virtually made them the sole opposition to TRS.
Ø Extending their power in Rajya Sabha. For any party at the centre, Rajya Sabha is equally important as Lok Sabha. To get the laws passed, BJP needs a majority in Rajya Sabha. That’s exactly the reason why BJP is lifting the heavyweights to win TMC led Bengal state.
Have we ever imagined that BJP will have the firepower to win the state of Tripura & Assam? Not many would’ve dreamt of this, but the reality is BJP did win these states. So, one can expect BJP to leave no stone unturned to achieve their dreams. Never underestimate the parties at the centre. They have both the power of people and the power of people’s representatives.
But, is it a cakewalk for BJP to win DIDI’s West Bengal? Decisively(maybe) not!
That because there are issues too with BJP which needs to be resolved. Biggest of them all is the absence of party leaders from BJP. Yes, that’s right. The big leaders in BJP were once part of TMC. The BJP supporter can argue saying that statistics show huge growth in voting percentage for BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
But that shouldn’t be taken as a cakewalk. Because the states where BJP had performed the best in Lok Sabha didn’t go well in State Assembly. Of course, each state has its own set of stories. Mukul Roy or Sudindhu Adhikari, both were TMC guys. Some of the present MP’s are also from TMC. They have electoral hold in the good number of assembly constituencies. But then the battle is against the TMC, Mamata Banerjee, who is a charming leader and once has swept the leftists out of power. It can also happen that the battle of fierce speakers in the land of Rasogula can end in a draw i.e., ‘hung’ assembly.
In conclusion, yes there is the factor of BJP’s own leader’s absence going into the elections. There is also a passionate campaign planned, the leaders at the centre, HM Amit Shah and PM Modi’s desire and hunger for winning the ‘presence’ in West Bengal can defeat anybody!!