Have you ever wondered why it Rains in India? Secrets behind Monsoon in India..

Its been a while since I wrote about monsoons, so in today’s Tuesday post, I would talk about monsoons and tell you things that very few of you would know. To start, if I ask, how is the monsoon this year then everyone would say that it is good. The reason is simple. We have been hearing so much about floods since last 2 months that monsoon this year would have been good. The monsoon season closes by 30th September which is still 20 days away but if you look at the performance of monsoon from 1st June till 10th September this is what you get.

  • India as a whole got 3% more than normal rainfall, means the excess of +3%
  • Telangana as a whole got 3% less than normal rainfall, means deficit of -3%
  • Hyderabad city got 19% less than normal rainfall, which means a deficit of -19%.

Already you might be a bit surprised looking at the figures. Let me surprise you more. Out of the last 119 years since we started measuring rainfall 57 years got less than normal rainfall and 62 years got more than normal rainfall. Its almost 52-48 distribution, with a tilt towards more than normal rainfall.

But if we look at the last 19 years, from 2001 to 2019, there is a shift. 12 out of the last 19 years saw less than normal rainfall and 7 years saw more than normal rainfall. That is roughly 38-62 distribution. If you go further deep and look at the last 9 years from 2011-2019 there are 6 less than normal rainfall and just 3 more than normal rainfall years. That is 33-67 distribution. Last 5 years saw just 1 year with more than normal rain and 4 years of less than normal rain which decreases the ratio to 20-80. Clearly rains are reducing in India.

I have written in my previous posts on monsoon that India gets monsoon in two wings. One is the Bay of Bengal wing and the other is the Arabian sea sing. Is the decrease in rainfall equal in both wings or is it a problem with only one wing? If you look at the data of last 9 years from 2011-2019 it’s the Bay of Bengal wing that gave lesser rainfall than the Arabian sea wing.

For example in 2019, we know that till today India got 3% more than normal rainfall. But if you look at Arabian sea wing that covers Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Gujarat, West Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan got 20% excess rainfall compared to Bay of Bengal wing which got -13% rain. That is why we heard flooding in Kerala, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Mumbai, all get rain from Arabian sea wing. The table shows the distribution in other states.

Year Arabian sea wing Bay of Bengal wing Overall rainfall
2011 +4% -6% +2%
2012 -4% -11% -7%
2013 +12% -8% +6%
2014 -8% -22% -12%
2015 -9% -17% -14%
2016 -2% -6% -3%
2017 -3% -9% -5%
2018 -5% -10% -9%
2019 +20% -13% +3%

Another trend that is observed is the Thar desert in Rajasthan is disappearing fast as there is excess rainfall in 8 out of the last 9 years. If this rate continues then it is possible that in the next 15-20 years, Thar desert will start to disappear completely. Another thing to notice is Assam and Meghalaya which receives the highest rain in India is no longer holding that place. Kerala is getting more rain than Meghalaya. Chirrapunji is no longer the wettest place. This is also because Rajasthan gets rain from Arabian sea wing and Assam and Meghalaya gets rain from Bay of Bengal wing. The table will give you clarity.

Year West Rajasthan Assam and Meghalaya
2011 +52% -30%
2012 +12% -3%
2013 +29% -35%
2014 0% -6%
2015 +46% -3%
2016 +20% -30%
2017 +39% -3%
2018 -23% -26%
2019 +18% -15%

 

Another worrying point is the Agricultural states which grow paddy crop. For example this year in the 7 paddy growing states of Assam, Bengal, Orissa, Andhra, UP, Haryana and Punjab the rainfall is a deficit and it’s at -14.7% till 10th September. Though there were 3 positive year years in the last 9 years, all the 9 years got deficit rainfall in these rice-growing states severely affecting the paddy crop. This also is leading to a change in food habit as more people are switching to wheat than rice. The data in the table will give you clarity.

Year Rice growing states Overall rainfall
2011 -7.5% +2%
2012 -17.5% -7%
2013 -10.5% +6%
2014 -24.2% -12%
2015 -15.5% -14%
2016 -14% -3%
2017 -7.5% -5%
2018 -5% -9%
2019 -14.7% +3%

All this data would have given you an idea about the changing face of monsoon in India. Deserts and non-agro areas are getting more rain and traditional agricultural areas are seeing deficit rains. How do we tackle this new problem? There has to be a thought process and debate on this.

Published by Sriram

A Teacher trying to Learn new things and explore the world each day! Believe in Happiness by the virtue of sacrifice and forgiveness.

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