Market Setup 14th January

The third week of the five week January series starts today and the first two weeks have not taken Nifty anywhere. It started off on a great note went to 10920 mark and corrected from there to 10700 and now at 10800 levels. Globally things were flat on Friday with Dow Jones closed at exactly flat terrain but Asian markets are not flat. Japan is shut today for a local festival but Hong Kong is down 350 points and all the other Asian markets are in slightly negative terrain with losses ranging from 0.2 to 0.5%. The good news for us is the Brent Crude which after touching 62 dollars has fallen again to 60 dollars but Rupee is again on depreciation spree touching 70.5 dollars.

On the domestic front, politically things are toughing up for Govt as the opposition is forming alliances in different states to fight BJP. Though its early for the market to react to this, it will always keep market nervous and affect any further movement on upwards. But the immediate news that will affect the market is the IIP news for the month of November. This number was at a dismal 0.5% compared to 8.5% seen in November 2017 and manufacturing was the bad news growing at -0.4%. Capital goods saw -3.2% growth which was the worst and consumer durables came at -0.9% and FMCG at -0.6%. All this doesn’t present a nice picture. Infosys came up with an average result better than TCS and that should cheer up the market. D mart which came up with Q3 on Saturday was a big disappointment as margins fell by 2%. So, Avenue supermarkets will be under pressure.

On the derivatives front, there were some shorts taken on the Nifty Futures on Friday and that brought the Nifty long positions down to 48% from 49% seen at the beginning of the day on Friday. On the options front, the Nifty put-call ratio fell a bit as demand for calls was more than puts. The Nifty put-call ratio fell to 1.43 from 1.46 seen at the beginning of the day. 10000 put added 1.1 lakh positions while all others shed open interest. With this, the 10500 put is at 38.9 lakh while 10000 put is at 37.9 lakh positions and 10700 put is at 33.9 lakh. On call side, 11000 call added 6 lakh positions and has 46.9 lakh open interest. So, 11000 is a firm resistance for the market.

What is the Nifty call for the day?

We will have a flat start in line with global cues around 10790-10810 zone and 10820-10850 is a resistance zone. We should see if Nifty can conquer that. I stopped you from taking any positions on Friday because of a tight range of 10750-10820 and unless that is broken there is no use of taking any positions. Today any correction might take it to 10720-10750 levels. So, its a no trade zone if Nifty is above 10750 but if Nifty breaks that 10750 and finds support at 10720 then it is better to take a long position there with 10780 as the target. If Nifty doesn’t fall below 10750 then no trade today also.