Finally, all-time high closing comes back to Nifty, though we missed another all-time high by just 6 points yesterday. I was talking about the short-covering happening once Nifty stays above 12200 mark and that has happened. As Nifty opened above 12200 and stayed above, lot of shorts were covered and that took Nifty almost to 12290 mark and Nifty closed very close to that at 12282.
Today, Nifty is supposed to have an all-time high opening and conquering of 12300 mark, but the US strikes in Baghdad Airport has killed a senior general of Iranian army Quassim Sulemani. This has created a lot of tension and Asia which was positive today with Hong Kong up more than 200 points are now absolutely flat and SGX which was up 40 points up at open is down 19 points now. Crude also surged from 67 dollars to close to 69 dollars on this news.
On the domestic front, the big good news is the CMIE report that the new project investment in Oct-Dec quarter has jumped 37% to 4.26 lakh Crore. This is the highest level seen in last 11 years and started off new projects means more employment and the definite revival signal for the economy. Added to that the worth of the projects that were stalled during the Oct-Dec quarter also has come down to 13,200 Cr which is also the lowest seen in the last 11 years. Now this suggests a definite pick up in the economic cycle.
Another news is the decision of RBI to hold multiple OMO operations as a part of operation twist 2.0 where RBI will purchase 5 year and 7-year Govt bonds in addition to the 10-year bonds maturing in 2029. All this will have some positive impact on the bond as well as stocks and bond yields are expected to come down.
On the derivatives front, yesterday though there was a huge surge in Nifty, it was happening only in Options. Nifty options saw buying to the tune of 1600 plus crore while Nifty futures saw a selling of 265 Cr. The overall long positions in Nifty futures came down to 55% as a result of this, but the Nifty PCR in options has surged from 1.15 to 1.47 mark.
Yesterday was weekly options expiry and we saw the second-highest turnover of 28.98 lakh crore and for the 9th January expiry 12200 put added 13.4 lakh positions while 12250 put and 12300 put added 8.9 lakh and 7.7 lakh positions respectively. 12000 put has the highest OI on put side while on call side 12300 call added 11.1 lakh positions while 12500 call added 5.3 lakh positions and 12300 call has the highest OI on call side making it a 12000-12300 range for this series.
What is the Nifty call for the day?
Things were looking bright till 7AM today and Nifty was poised for an all-time highest opening and crossing of 12300 mark for Nifty, but the US drone strikes at Baghdad Airport killing the Senior Iranian generals had put cold water on the markets across Asia including India. We are now likely to open down close to 12250 mark and it is only this fundamental that will move Nifty.
If the reaction is short-lived then we will see a recovery and will cross 12300 today. Else there might be a drop to 12200 mark, which will be a support. If Nifty breaks 12250 in early morning trade then stay away and see where Nifty settles down. You can trade on Monday, depending on where Nifty closes. But if Nifty stays above 12220 mark and goes to 12250, then take a long position with 12300 as the target.